Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs And Foxes Know Best

Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best

by Mary Pilon

4.4 out of 5

Language	:	English
File size	:	821 KB
Text-to-Speech	:	Enabled
Screen Reader	:	Supported
Enhanced typesetting	:	Enabled
Word Wise	:	Enabled
Print length	:	323 pages

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In his book, Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs And Foxes Know Best, Philip Tetlock argues that experts who are 'hedgehogs'—who have a single, overarching theory that they apply to all situations—are less accurate in their predictions than experts who are 'foxes'—who have a variety of theories and approaches that they can draw on.

Tetlock's research is based on a study of over 280 experts who made predictions about world events over a period of 20 years. He found that the experts who were hedgehogs were less accurate in their predictions than the experts who were foxes.

Tetlock argues that the reason for this is that hedgehogs are too quick to dismiss information that does not fit with their theory. They are also more likely to be overconfident in their predictions.

Foxes, on the other hand, are more open to new information and are less likely to be overconfident in their predictions. They are also more likely to consider a variety of factors when making predictions.

Tetlock's research has important implications for how we should think about experts and their predictions. It suggests that we should be skeptical of experts who are too quick to dismiss information that does not fit with their theory. We should also be wary of experts who are overconfident in their predictions.

Instead, we should look for experts who are foxes—who have a variety of theories and approaches that they can draw on. These experts are more likely to be accurate in their predictions and are less likely to be misled by their own biases.

What is the difference between a hedgehog and a fox?

In his book, Tetlock defines a hedgehog as someone who has a single, overarching theory that they apply to all situations. A fox, on the other hand, is someone who has a variety of theories and approaches that they can draw on.

Hedgehogs are often very good at explaining the world in a simple and straightforward way. They can quickly and easily identify the most important factors in a situation and develop a plan of action.

However, hedgehogs can also be very narrow-minded. They are often unable to see the world from other perspectives and can be quick to dismiss information that does not fit with their theory.

Foxes, on the other hand, are more open-minded and flexible. They are able to see the world from different perspectives and are more willing to consider new information.

Foxes are also more likely to be aware of their own biases and limitations. They are less likely to be overconfident in their predictions and are more likely to seek out feedback from others.

Why do foxes know best?

Tetlock's research suggests that foxes are better at making predictions than hedgehogs for several reasons.

First, foxes are more open to new information. They are willing to consider information that does not fit with their existing beliefs and are more likely to change their minds in light of new evidence.

Second, foxes are less likely to be overconfident in their predictions. They are aware of their own biases and limitations and are more likely to seek out feedback from others.

Third, foxes have a variety of theories and approaches that they can draw on. This allows them to consider a wider range of factors when making predictions and to develop more nuanced and sophisticated predictions.

Tetlock's research suggests that we should be skeptical of experts who are too quick to dismiss information that does not fit with their theory. We should also be wary of experts who are overconfident in their predictions.

Instead, we should look for experts who are foxes—who have a variety of theories and approaches that they can draw on. These experts are more likely to be accurate in their predictions and are less likely to be misled by their own biases.

Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best

by Mary Pilon

4.4 out of 5

Language	:	English
File size	:	821 KB
Text-to-Speech	:	Enabled
Screen Reader	:	Supported
Enhanced typesetting	:	Enabled
Word Wise	:	Enabled
Print length	:	323 pages

FREE